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\begin{frontmatter} \begin{frontmatter}
\title{ Coordination of insured satellite launch supply chain: government subsidy or blockchain implementation?} \title{ Coordination of insured satellite launch supply chain: government subsidy or blockchain adoption?}
\author[]{xxx}\ead{xxx@ucas.ac.cn} \author[]{xxx}\ead{xxx@ucas.ac.cn}
\author[SEMUCAS,BDCAS]{xxxx}\ead{xxx@ucas.ac.cn} \author[SEMUCAS,BDCAS]{xxxx}\ead{xxx@ucas.ac.cn}
@ -103,17 +103,18 @@
% problem definition: what is the business problem % problem definition: what is the business problem
The commercial launch industry is booming but abounds enormous-loss risks, which is similar to the disruption risk in the supply chain. The commercial launch industry is booming but abounds enormous-loss risks, which is similar to the disruption risk in the supply chain.
Traditionally, launch insurance is the commonly used financial tool to hedge such risks. Traditionally, launch insurance is the commonly used financial tool to hedge such risks.
And lots of governments have implemented the measures for subsidizing the insurance fee for commercial space launches in order to promote the development of the commercial space industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises and accelerate the promotion of manufacturing in the commercial aerospace field. However, the insurance, as the third highest cost after the satellite' cost and the launch service cost, makes satellite operators prohibitive.
Nowadays, with the development of blockchain technology, it also is implemented to decrease launch risks from a technical perspective. Moreover, in order to alleviate the financial pressure on private satellite operators, some governments have implemented the measures for subsidizing the insurance fee for commercial space launches aiming to promote the development of the commercial space industry.
However, the cost of both launch insurance and blockchain technology stop lots of satellite owners who think they are not cost-effective. Besides, with the development of blockchain technology, it also is adopted to decrease launch risks and expand market from a technical perspective.
However, a tricky question is how to make a cost-effective decision for the satellite operator between government-subsidy insurance and blockchain-embed insurance.
% Academic /Practice relevance: what have others done % Academic /Practice relevance: what have others done
In this paper, we apply a game-theoretic approach to study the fintech launch contract supported by government subsidy or blockchain for solving the trade-off between high risk and high cost. In this paper, we apply a game-theoretic approach to study the fintech launch contract supported by government subsidy or blockchain for solving the trade-off between high risk and high cost.
More precisely, we consider a Stackelberg strategy in a space launch supply chain and build math models to examine the cases with launch insurance (Model I), with government-subsidy(Model IG) and with blockchain-embedded (Model IB). More precisely, we consider a Stackelberg strategy in a space launch supply chain and build math models to examine the cases with launch insurance (Model I), with government-subsidy (Model IG) and with blockchain-embedded (Model IB).
From a theoretical perspective, we investigate the optimal launch price and the optimal effort (for improving launch success probability) expressions. From a theoretical perspective, we investigate the optimal launch price and the optimal effort (for improving launch success probability) expressions.
We find that if the government wants to form a virtuous circle and optimize the allocation of funds, it should screen when subsidizing satellite companies, rather than unconditional subsidies. We find that if the government wants to form a virtuous circle and optimize the allocation of funds, it should screen when subsidizing satellite companies, rather than unconditional subsidies.
In addition, we also find that the subsidy do not benefit consumers, but blockchain can. In addition, we also find that the subsidy do not benefit consumers, but blockchain can.
Once the blockchain technology is adopted, contract prices go up, VM exerts more effort, and the premium rate always is lower as the launch missions become more efficient and believable. Once the blockchain technology is adopted, contract prices go up, VM exerts more effort, and the premium rate always is lower as the launch missions become more efficient and believable.
Moreover, when the satellite owner choose an inexpensive vehicle for launch, the cost-advantage BEL platform is beneficial to all participants. Moreover, when the satellite operator choose an inexpensive vehicle for launch, the cost-advantage BEL platform is beneficial to all participants.
Finally, coupling with these findings, we further discuss the managerial implications for the commercial space launch market. Finally, coupling with these findings, we further discuss the managerial implications for the commercial space launch market.
\end{abstract} \end{abstract}
@ -153,7 +154,7 @@
%商业航天面临的问题 %商业航天面临的问题
While the successful SpaceX mission has created new enthusiasm for commercial satellite launching, there are still many risks that should not be ignored in satellite launch services, such as the responsibility of the vehicle, the indicators of the satellite, the condition of the launch activity so on. While the successful SpaceX mission has created new enthusiasm for commercial satellite launching, there are still many risks that should not be ignored in satellite launch services, such as the responsibility of the vehicle, the indicators of the satellite, the condition of the launch activity so on.
In addition, many private investors are hesitant about investing in space businesses because of the costly infrastructure and extended timelines. In addition, many private investors are hesitant about investing in space businesses because of the costly infrastructure and extended timelines.
From the perspective of private companies, once the launch fails, the loss for both satellite owner and launch servicer is enormous. While governmental and military satellites are usually self-insured, commercial satellite owners often require insurance to be in place.\par From the perspective of private companies, once the launch fails, the loss for both satellite operator and launch servicer is enormous. While governmental and military satellites are usually self-insured, commercial satellite operators often require insurance to be in place.\par
% 解决商业航天风险的一个途径是购买航天保险。 % 解决商业航天风险的一个途径是购买航天保险。
In order to hedge launch risks, space insurance emerged. Insurance companies like Global Aerospace have been providing insurance for space initiatives since the first commercial satellites and launch vehicles required financial support to cover their risk. In order to hedge launch risks, space insurance emerged. Insurance companies like Global Aerospace have been providing insurance for space initiatives since the first commercial satellites and launch vehicles required financial support to cover their risk.
@ -163,6 +164,11 @@
in-orbit insurance \footnote{In-orbit policies insure satellites for in-orbit technical problems and damages once a satellite has been placed by a launch vehicle in its proper orbit.}, in-orbit insurance \footnote{In-orbit policies insure satellites for in-orbit technical problems and damages once a satellite has been placed by a launch vehicle in its proper orbit.},
and launch plus life insurance \footnote{Third-party liability and government property insurances protect launch service providers and their customers in the event of public injury or government property damage, respectively, caused by launch or mission failure.}. and launch plus life insurance \footnote{Third-party liability and government property insurances protect launch service providers and their customers in the event of public injury or government property damage, respectively, caused by launch or mission failure.}.
The launch insurance is usually the most widely focused \citep{Suchodolski2018} because the launch is the riskiest part of any space activity, and the damage is often catastrophic. \citep{Gould2000, Kunstadter2020}. \par The launch insurance is usually the most widely focused \citep{Suchodolski2018} because the launch is the riskiest part of any space activity, and the damage is often catastrophic. \citep{Gould2000, Kunstadter2020}. \par
Concerning about the high premium, some governments have introduced policies to subsidize the commercial industry.
For example, Beijing Bureau of Economy and Information Technology has implemented an subsidy about commercial space launch insurance to support commercial space enterprises to engage in the production and manufacture of vehicles and satellites in Beijing, and encourage commercial space enterprises to establish headquarters, sales and operation in Beijing.
In addition, Russian and Japan also provide government indemnification for the loss of satellite launching activity.
Besides, the UK government invested in launch sites to provide new satellite launch services mentioned in its industrial strategy white paper.
The Unites States not only provided subsidy for launch liability insurance but also awarded the commercial companies directly.
% 除了在金融方面补偿风险外，还可以通过提升技术的方式降低发射失败率。 % 除了在金融方面补偿风险外，还可以通过提升技术的方式降低发射失败率。
In addition to compensating for risk financially, reducing the launch failure rate on the technical side is also an available way for commercial space companies. In addition to compensating for risk financially, reducing the launch failure rate on the technical side is also an available way for commercial space companies.
@ -184,7 +190,7 @@
% Responsiveness & It enable intelligent, end-to-end supply chain visibility and transparency which allows participants owning permission to check and record data.\\ % Responsiveness & It enable intelligent, end-to-end supply chain visibility and transparency which allows participants owning permission to check and record data.\\
(1) Reliability: The verified data on the blockchain launch platform is reliable, which cannot be changed based on decentralizing electronic record-keeping. \par (1) Reliability: The verified data on the blockchain launch platform is reliable, which cannot be changed based on decentralizing electronic record-keeping. \par
(2) Efficiency: Blockchain supports the smart contract to build an efficient network between the participants who get a node to share, add and update information. (2) Efficiency: Blockchain supports the smart contract to build an efficient network between the participants who get a node to share, add and update information.\
% \bottomrule % \bottomrule
% \end{tabular} % \end{tabular}
% \end{threeparttable} % \end{threeparttable}
@ -194,26 +200,43 @@
%what is the trade off (the good thing and the bad thing) and what we do %what is the trade off (the good thing and the bad thing) and what we do
Despite the ideas given above being excellent, both space insurance and blockchain technology are high-cost, which make lots of private space companies hesitate to adopt them. Despite the ideas given above being excellent, both space insurance and blockchain technology are high-cost, which make lots of private space companies hesitate to adopt them.
Considering the trade-off between handling risk and considerable cost, we examine the contract price problem. Considering the trade-off between handling risk and considerable cost, we examine the contract price problem.
From the perspective of operation management, we refer to the participants as supply chain members and simplify the question as a two-echelon supply chain consisting of a satellite owner and vehicle manufacturer who provide the launch service. From the perspective of operation management, we refer to the participants as supply chain members and simplify the question as a two-echelon supply chain consisting of a satellite operator and vehicle manufacturer who provide the launch service.
We examine how the insurance contract and blockchain technology to help improve the supply chain value and how it affects the contract price in the supply chain. We examine how the insurance contract and blockchain technology to help improve the supply chain value and how it affects the contract price in the supply chain.
We consider two modes: 1) the satellite owner contract with the vehicle manufacturer under insurance; 2) the satellite owner contracts with the vehicle manufacturer under blockchain-embedded insurance. We consider two modes: 1) the satellite operator contract with the vehicle manufacturer under insurance; 2) the satellite operator contracts with the vehicle manufacturer under blockchain-embedded insurance.
\subsection{Research questions and key findings} \subsection{Research questions and key findings}
Motivated by the application of fintech and the importance of space launching operation management in the real world, we theoretically study the research questions listed below:\par Motivated by the application of fintech and the importance of space launching operation management in the real world, we theoretically study the research questions listed below:\par
RQ1. How to analytically build the mathematical models under traditional launch insurance and blockchain-embedded launch insurance, respectively? How to price the launch service contract for the satellite owner? Furthermore, how to make the optimal decision for the vehicle manufacturer? \par RQ1. How to analytically build the mathematical models under traditional launch insurance, government-subsidy insurance, and blockchain-embedded launch insurance, respectively? How to price the launch service contract for the satellite operator? Furthermore, how to make the optimal decision for the vehicle manufacturer? \par
RQ2. When will the blockchain launch platform be feasible and how does it affect the optimal decisions? \par RQ2. How does the government arrange subsidies? And how does the subsidy affect the optimal decisions?\par
RQ3. What are the blockchain values for the satellite owner and the vehicle manufacturer, respectively? When will the presence of the blockchain launch platform achieve a win-win in which both the satellite owner, and the vehicle manufacturer are beneficial?\par RQ3. When will the blockchain launch platform be feasible and how does it affect the optimal decisions? \par
RQ4. What are the subsidy or blockchain values for the satellite operator, the vehicle manufacturer and customers, respectively?
%When will the presence of the blockchain launch platform achieve a win-win in which both the satellite operator, and the vehicle manufacturer are beneficial?\par
To address the above research questions, we conduct a game-theoretic analytical study by building math models. To address the above research questions, we conduct a game-theoretic analytical study by building math models.
By arithmetic derivation and analysis, we obtain the following results: By arithmetic derivation and analysis, we obtain the following results:
(1) When the anti-risk ability of the satellite owner is enhanced, the profits of both the satellite owner and the vehicle manufacturer will increase. \begin{enumerate} [(1)]
Significantly, the implementation of the blockchain launch platform will make this effect more pronounced. \item When government subsidies for the selection of satellite operators for low-cost vehicle launches, it helps to form positive feedback in the commercial satellite market,
Moreover, the adoption of blockchain will decrease the threshold of the satellite owner to set the optimal price. that is, the satellite vendor is more willing to pay high launch prices, so that the vehicle manufacture have the motivation to increase the probability of successful launches.
(2) Particularly, the optimal effort the vehicle manufacturer exert will increase and the contract price as well as the premium rate will decrease with the support of blockchain. \item Once the government subsidy project is launched, the satellite operator will always get more from it than before.
(3) Via analyzing the value of blockchain, we note that the blockchain launch platform will always benefit the satellite owner no matter how weak her risk resistance is. But for the vehicle manufacturer, only when the cost of vehicle is relatively low, his income will increase compared to before; otherwise, he cannot benefit from the subsidy program.
However, it is profitable for the vehicle manufacturer to implement cost-advantage blockchain technology only when the satellite owner has a strong capacity for risk. For consumers, there is no change in consumer surplus.
Therefore, the overall social welfare as the sum of the profit of the various subjects will increase.
\item In the blockchain-embedded model, the values that blockchain bring to the optimal decisions are similar to the government subsidy brings.
However, there is one difference to claim that the retail price has been increased and the market demand also increases.
\item Moreover, for the satellite, she will always benefit from the adoption of blockchain if its cost is relatively low.
\item However, the profitable condition for the vehicle to decide whether use the blockchain is not only the cost of blockchain is expensive but also the cost of vehicle manufacturing is low.
\item Significantly, the use of the blockchain launch platform will make the consumer surplus increase no matter in which situation.
\end{enumerate}
%(1) When the anti-risk ability of the satellite operator is enhanced, the profits of both the satellite operator and the vehicle manufacturer will increase.
%Significantly, the implementation of the blockchain launch platform will make this effect more pronounced.
%Moreover, the adoption of blockchain will decrease the threshold of the satellite operator to set the optimal price.
%(2) Particularly, the optimal effort the vehicle manufacturer exert will increase and the contract price as well as the premium rate will decrease with the support of blockchain.
%(3) Via analyzing the value of blockchain, we note that the blockchain launch platform will always benefit the satellite operator no matter how weak her risk resistance is.
%However, it is profitable for the vehicle manufacturer to implement cost-advantage blockchain technology only when the satellite operator has a strong capacity for risk.
\section{Literature review}\label{sec:review} \section{Literature review}\label{sec:review}
@ -279,10 +302,10 @@ The following parts in this paper are organized as:
\refsec{sec:conclusions} concludes this study and gives analytical insights. \refsec{sec:conclusions} concludes this study and gives analytical insights.
\section{Without blockchain technology} \label{sec:models} \section{Benchmark case} \label{sec:models}
Consider a make-to-order supply chain consisting of one vehicle manufacturer (VM, he), one satellite owner (SO, she) and an insurance company (IC, it). Consider a make-to-order supply chain consisting of one vehicle manufacturer (VM, he), one satellite operator (SO, she) and an insurance company (IC, it).
As shown in \reffig{fig:sequence}, to launch the satellite successfully, the SO usually conducts a series analyses to choose the vehicle and design the launch service contract with launch price $l$ and prepay ratio $\alpha$. As shown in \reffig{fig:sequence}, to launch the satellite successfully, the SO usually conducts a series analyses to choose the vehicle and design the launch service contract with launch price $l$ and prepay ratio $\alpha$.
Once the satellite is on-track, the SO will pay VM last part $(1-\alpha)p$ and she will obtain income from sailing satellite data. Once the satellite is on-track, the SO will pay VM last part $(1-\alpha)p$ and she will obtain income from sailing satellite data.
Without loss generality, consumers possess a stochastic valuation $u$ towards the satellite data, which follows a distribution $f(u)$. Following most literature, we set $f(u)$ follows a uniform distribution with a rage of $0-1$, denoted by $U[0,1]$. To avoid facing messy mathematics, we normalize the consumer population as $1$. Without loss generality, consumers possess a stochastic valuation $u$ towards the satellite data, which follows a distribution $f(u)$. Following most literature, we set $f(u)$ follows a uniform distribution with a rage of $0-1$, denoted by $U[0,1]$. To avoid facing messy mathematics, we normalize the consumer population as $1$.
@ -300,8 +323,8 @@ The following parts in this paper are organized as:
To reflect the VM's additional loss, a penalty denoted by $\theta$ is adopted into the profit function. %\textcolor{red}{cite:Williams-Robert-COVERING-THE-INCREASED-LIABILITY-OF-NEW-LAUNCH-MARKETS.pdf} To reflect the VM's additional loss, a penalty denoted by $\theta$ is adopted into the profit function. %\textcolor{red}{cite:Williams-Robert-COVERING-THE-INCREASED-LIABILITY-OF-NEW-LAUNCH-MARKETS.pdf}
Considering the launch risk, it is natural that SO attempts to purchase launch insurance before launching to hedge risks. Considering the launch risk, it is natural that SO attempts to purchase launch insurance before launching to hedge risks.
IC designs the launch insurance according to the analyses of conducting serious technological analyses of satellite and the VM. IC designs the launch insurance according to the analyses of conducting serious technological analyses of satellite and the VM.
Once the launch fails, the IC usually pays pro rata compensation. Once the launch fails, the IC usually pays pro rate compensation.
We assume the claim covers $\beta$ of the whole loss including the cost of satellite and the prepay price. \textcolor{red}{references} We assume the claim covers $\beta$ of the whole loss including the cost of satellite and the prepay price.
We summarize the notation used throughout the paper in \reftab{tab:Parameters}. We summarize the notation used throughout the paper in \reftab{tab:Parameters}.
@ -336,7 +359,7 @@ The following parts in this paper are organized as:
$k$ & The effort cost factor\\ $k$ & The effort cost factor\\
$\pi_i$ & The profit of vehicle manufacture$(i= V)$ or satellite owner $(i= S)$ or insurance company $(i=I)$\\ $\pi_i$ & The profit of vehicle manufacture$(i= V)$ or satellite operator $(i= S)$ or insurance company $(i=I)$\\
$CS$& The consumer surplus\\ $CS$& The consumer surplus\\
$SW$& The social welfare\\ $SW$& The social welfare\\
@ -356,7 +379,7 @@ The following parts in this paper are organized as:
\begin{figure}[H] \begin{figure}[H]
\centering \centering
\includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{sequences.pdf} \includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{sequences.pdf}
\caption{Sequence of events. SO :the satellite owner; VM: the vehicle manufacture; IC: the insurance company. } \caption{Sequence of events. SO :the satellite operator; VM: the vehicle manufacture; IC: the insurance company. }
\label{fig:sequence} \label{fig:sequence}
\end{figure} \end{figure}
@ -738,7 +761,7 @@ So the only difference between model I and model IG is that the SO will obtain a
\begin{figure}[H] \begin{figure}[H]
\centering \centering
\includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{sequences_g.pdf} \includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{sequences_g.pdf}
\caption{Sequence of events. SO :the satellite owner; VM: the vehicle manufacture; IC: the insurance company. } \caption{Sequence of events. SO :the satellite operator; VM: the vehicle manufacture; IC: the insurance company. }
\label{fig:sequence_g} \label{fig:sequence_g}
\end{figure} \end{figure}
@ -896,8 +919,8 @@ Note, the above phenomenon occurs only in condition $\cv<H(\alpha)$ which means
\refprop{prop:values_profit} indicates two points. \refprop{prop:values_profit} indicates two points.
Firstly, for given $d, k, \theta$, the profit of SO and the social welfare in model IG are always higher than in model I. Firstly, for given $d, k, \theta$, the profit of SO and the social welfare in model IG are always higher than in model I.
This means that when the launch insurance subsidy program is implemented, satellite owners and society always benefit. This means that when the launch insurance subsidy program is implemented, satellite operators and society always benefit.
Mainly because the satellite owner is a direct beneficiary. Mainly because the satellite operator is a direct beneficiary.
Her earnings decided by the tradeoff between higher launch fees and higher launch success rates. Her earnings decided by the tradeoff between higher launch fees and higher launch success rates.
Secondly, the profit of VM in model IG is higher than in model I if and only if $\cv<H(\alpha)$. Secondly, the profit of VM in model IG is higher than in model I if and only if $\cv<H(\alpha)$.
The change of VM's profit depends on the tradeoff between higher effort cost and higher launch service income. The change of VM's profit depends on the tradeoff between higher effort cost and higher launch service income.
@ -905,10 +928,10 @@ However, when the cost of vehicle is quite high, VM will not benefit from the go
As a remark, it is not always preferred to implement the government subsidy in all cases. As a remark, it is not always preferred to implement the government subsidy in all cases.
When the government provides subsidies, it is necessary to screen satellite vendors, and only by subsidizing satellite launch activities with inexpensive vehicles can effectively promote the benign development of the launch market. When the government provides subsidies, it is necessary to screen satellite vendors, and only by subsidizing satellite launch activities with inexpensive vehicles can effectively promote the benign development of the launch market.
Otherwise, subsidies can only increase the profit of satellite owners, but can not promote the launch success rate, which is not conducive to the optimal allocation of government funds. Otherwise, subsidies can only increase the profit of satellite operators, but can not promote the launch success rate, which is not conducive to the optimal allocation of government funds.
\section{With blockchain technology} \section{The case with blockchain technology }
@ -1293,9 +1316,9 @@ So we investigate the blockchain applications in the space launch supply chain b
As a concluding remark, we highlight the answers as follows: As a concluding remark, we highlight the answers as follows:
\begin{enumerate} [(1)] \begin{enumerate} [(1)]
\item When government subsidies for the selection of satellite owners for low-cost vehicle launches, it helps to form positive feedback in the commercial satellite market, \item When government subsidies for the selection of satellite operators for low-cost vehicle launches, it helps to form positive feedback in the commercial satellite market,
that is, the satellite vendor is more willing to pay high launch prices, so that the vehicle manufacture have the motivation to increase the probability of successful launches. that is, the satellite vendor is more willing to pay high launch prices, so that the vehicle manufacture have the motivation to increase the probability of successful launches.
\item Once the government subsidy project is launched, the satellite owner will always get more from it than before. \item Once the government subsidy project is launched, the satellite operator will always get more from it than before.
But for the vehicle manufacturer, only when the cost of vehicle is relatively low, his income will increase compared to before; otherwise, he cannot benefit from the subsidy program. But for the vehicle manufacturer, only when the cost of vehicle is relatively low, his income will increase compared to before; otherwise, he cannot benefit from the subsidy program.
For consumers, there is no change in consumer surplus. For consumers, there is no change in consumer surplus.
Therefore, the overall social welfare as the sum of the profit of the various subjects will increase. Therefore, the overall social welfare as the sum of the profit of the various subjects will increase.
@ -1308,9 +1331,9 @@ However, there is one difference to claim that the retail price has been increas
\end{enumerate} \end{enumerate}
%\subsection{Managerial implications} %\subsection{Managerial implications}
%Analyzing the derived findings, we further propose the following managerial implications, which help form the action plans for satellite owners and vehicle manufacturers and the government.\par %Analyzing the derived findings, we further propose the following managerial implications, which help form the action plans for satellite operators and vehicle manufacturers and the government.\par
%Satellite owner: We have highlighted that government subsidy is critical in improving profit for satellite owners. Moreover, the adoption of the blockchain-embedded launch platform will enhance the profit. .\par %Satellite operator: We have highlighted that government subsidy is critical in improving profit for satellite operators. Moreover, the adoption of the blockchain-embedded launch platform will enhance the profit. .\par
%Vehicle manufacturer: The blockchain-embedded launch platform will help to motivate the manufacturer to exert more effort to improve the launch success probability based on sharing data. However, the best strategy for the manufacture is adopting blockchain technology when cooperating with high anti-risk satellite owner. In that way, they could make it a win-win. %Vehicle manufacturer: The blockchain-embedded launch platform will help to motivate the manufacturer to exert more effort to improve the launch success probability based on sharing data. However, the best strategy for the manufacture is adopting blockchain technology when cooperating with high anti-risk satellite operator. In that way, they could make it a win-win.
\section{ Future research} \section{ Future research}
For the future studies, we suggest several probable future directions. For the future studies, we suggest several probable future directions.